Who Will Win - Joe Calzaghe or Mikkel Kessler?

When Joe Calzaghe (43-0, 32 KOs) and Mikkel Kessler (39-0, 29 KOs) meet for the super middleweight title this Saturday from Millennium Stadium in Cardiff, Wales, HBO will be kicking off its first, of three, mega-fights to close out the year (Mosley-Cotto and Mayweather-Hatton are the other two). Of all three fights, this prediction is the hardest to make. However, I will not deviate from my blueprint on picking successful boxing match winners.

COMPETITION

As boxing's current longest-reigning world champion, Joe Calzaghe has faced and defeated various boxing styles, defeating current and former super middleweight contenders like Robin Reid (26-1-1*), Byron Mitchell (25-2-1*) and Jeff Lacy (21-0*). The undefeated Mikkel Kessler's record is not too shabby either, as he has vanquished formidable foes like Anthony Mundine (23-2*), Markus Beyer (34-2-1*) and Librado Andrade (24-0*).

ADVANTAGE: CALZAGHE

Calzaghe's overall body of work, highlighted by his career-defining victory over Jeff Lacy, give him the edge here.

DEFENSE

The fact that both fighters are undefeated, have never been seriously hurt in the ring, and have not had a controversial victory on their record, it's quite clear that both have strong defenses and chins. Being the natural counter-puncher, Calzaghe focuses on defense first. Being the natural aggressor, Kessler focuses on offense first - overwhelming opponents with pressure and power punching. In Kessler's world, a good offense is the best defense.

ADVANTAGE: CALZAGHE

Fighting many big punchers (Kessler being the latest), Calzaghe has generally dodged (excluding a flash knockdown he suffered at the hands of Byron Mitchell in 2003) the biggest bombs launched his way. Kessler is well-schooled, keeps his hands high and has never been knocked, but the advantage still goes to Calzaghe.

FOOTWORK

This bout is very difficult to predict because both fighters are boxer-punchers, with differing styles. One (Calzaghe) uses his fleet feet to manipulate distance and create counter-punching opportunities, while the other (Kessler) primarily uses his feet to cut off the ring and plant to let off his power punches.

CLEAR ADVANTAGE: CALZAGHE

Unless Calzaghe gets old overnight and "loses his legs" (which is a possibility), he will clearly have the footwork advantage.

HAND SPEED

One need not look any further than Joe Calzaghe's domination of knockout artist Jeff Lacy over a year ago to know what kind of hand speed that he brings to the table. That fistic masterpiece was the perfect storm of defense, foot speed, hand speed and ring generalship. Kessler has deceptively fast hands, but his calling cards are his physical strength, power and relentlessness.

CLEAR ADVANTAGE: CALZAGHE

While Kessler is a very competent boxer-puncher, he'll be facing the fastest opponent that he has ever faced, and one of the fastest in boxing in Calzaghe.

LOCALE

Calzaghe, known as "The Pride of Wales," will be fighting on his home turf while Kessler will be fighting in hostile territory. We all know the effect that this can have on the judges, especially in a fight that goes to the scorecards.

CLEAR ADVANTAGE: CALZAGHE

Sometimes fighting in front of one's hometown or native land, can lead a boxer to: try and impress his fans, fight more aggressively than originally planned, and open themselves up to be knocked out (e.g. Cory Spinks hometown KO loss to Zab Judah in St. Louis, Missouri). However, Calzaghe is too smart for that. He has successfully gone the distance numerous times at home, and is not worried about how he wins, but simply that he wins. Realizing this, Kessler will likely press the action even more than usual, which is right up his alley anyway.

It looks like a Calzaghe blowout in the making? On paper it sure looks like it, but Michael Jordan once said that paper doesn't win championships. In my mind, Calzaghe should win, based on the advantages I have outlined above, but one cannot discount Kessler's determination, punching power and will. I sure do not; but I am still picking Joe Calzaghe to unify the super middleweight title over twelve competitive rounds. Someone's "0" has to got go, and the guess here is that it will be Kessler's.